Everyday Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The average number of daily killings per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers could fail to signal improved national stability.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen over these past months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, noting that last month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts warned that relying on homicide statistics to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to properly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of daily homicides was also an issue because it could obscure days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.